Assessing the impacts of equivalency agreements in international organic trade
使用BLP模型估计2011-2019年间有机等效协议对美国、加拿大和丹麦有机农产品市场出口国市场份额的影响，发现协议伙伴国获得更高份额，模拟显示秘鲁、墨西哥和土耳其若签署协议将显著提升市场份额。
Abstract This study employs Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes' (1995; hereafter BLP) model to estimate the impacts of organic equivalency agreements (OEAs) on the market share of exporting countries that shipped organic agrifood products to the markets of the U.S., Canada, and Denmark from 2011 to 2019. The BLP model accounts for variations in the trade impacts of OEAs by considering unobserved, product‐specific, agro‐ecological comparative advantages and bilateral trade costs. The BLP estimation offers a more realistic trade pattern, showing that exporters producing and selling close substitutes for organic agrifood products with the competitors in the market would be more sensitive to the establishment of OEAs between the competitors and the market. Results indicate that OEA partners of the importer would achieve a higher share in this market than non‐OEA partners. The simulation results suggest that Peru would have captured 23.8% of the 2019 U.S. market share if Peru had signed an OEA with the U.S. in 2017. Additionally, Mexico and Turkey would have secured 35.1% and 1.8% of the 2019 Canadian and Danish markets, respectively, had the Mexico–Canada and Turkey–Denmark OEAs been in effect since 2017. These findings, along with changes in the market shares of other exporters under a hypothetically established OEA, provide new insights into organic trade patterns and highlight the potential for further development of OEAs.