A Quantitative Theory of Political Transitions
构建了一个由起义和改革驱动的重复政治转型的定量模型，通过拟合1946-2010年全球政治体制数据，发现模型能准确复制转型风险、起义与改革频率、新体制类型分布等关键特征。
Abstract We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the beliefs of disenfranchised citizens play a key role in determining revolutionary pressure, which in interaction with preemptive reforms determine regime dynamics. We study the quantitative implications of the model by fitting it to data on the universe of political regimes existing between 1946 and 2010. The estimated model generates a process of political transitions that looks remarkably close to the data, replicating the empirical shape of transition hazards, the frequency of revolts relative to reforms, the distribution of newly established regime types after revolts and reforms, and the unconditional distribution over regime types.