Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study
该准实验研究首次发现碳税对排放有显著因果效应，分析瑞典交通燃料碳税和增值税后，交通二氧化碳排放下降近11%，且碳税弹性是价格弹性的三倍，表明用价格弹性模拟减排会低估实际效果。
This quasi-experimental study is the first to find a significant causal effect of carbon taxes on emissions, empirically analyzing the implementation of a carbon tax and a value-added tax on transport fuel in Sweden. After implementation, carbon dioxide emissions from transport declined almost 11 percent, with the largest share due to the carbon tax alone, relative to a synthetic control unit constructed from a comparable group of OECD countries. Furthermore, the carbon tax elasticity of demand for gasoline is three times larger than the price elasticity. Policy evaluations of carbon taxes, using price elasticities to simulate emission reductions, may thus significantly underestimate their true effect.