Transmission of a Resource Boom: The Case of Australia
利用1988至2016年中国工业化对澳大利亚的影响，通过SVAR模型识别资源供需冲击对宏观经济的传导，并分解出资源繁荣的四个阶段。
Abstract This paper presents evidence on the macroeconomic adjustment of a resource‐rich country to a resource boom using the effects of Chinese industrialization on Australia from 1988 to 2016. An SVAR model is specified, incorporating a proxy for Chinese resource demand and commodity prices to identify the effects of commodity supply and demand shocks on the Australian macroeconomy. We develop a multivariate historical decomposition to show how resource sector shocks lead the economy to deviate from a long‐run projection. The paper identifies four phases of the transmission of the resource boom before its conclusion in 2015.