The cannibalization effect of wind and solar in the California wholesale electricity market
研究了加州电力市场中风电和太阳能渗透率上升如何通过优先调度效应压低自身收入，发现两者均存在绝对和相对蚕食效应，且风电渗透会降低太阳能价值因子，而太阳能渗透在高渗透低消费时反而提升风电价值因子。
Increasing penetration of zero marginal cost variable renewable technologies cause the decline of wholesale electricity prices due to the merit-order effect. This causes a “cannibalization effect” through which increasing renewable technologies’ penetration undermines their own value. We calculate solar and wind daily unit revenues (generation weighted electricity prices) and value factors (unit revenues divided by average electricity prices) from hourly data of the day-ahead California wholesale electricity market (CAISO) for the period January 2013 to June 2017. We then perform a time series econometric analysis to test the absolute (unit revenues) and relative (value factors) cannibalization effect of solar and wind technologies, as well as the cross-cannibalization effects between technologies. We find both absolute and relative cannibalization effect for both solar and wind, but while wind penetration reduces the value factor of solar, solar penetration increases wind value factor, at least at high penetration and low consumption levels. We explore non-linearities and also find that the cannibalization effect is stronger at low consumption and high wind/solar penetration levels. This entails that wind and (mainly) solar competitiveness could be jeopardized unless additional mitigation measures such as storage, demand management or intercontinental interconnections are taken.