Concentration and variability of forecasts in artificial investment games: an online experiment on WeChat
利用微信平台进行在线实验，研究观察他人预测和公开投资决策如何影响人们对金融市场的预测和投资行为，发现预测共享导致群体内预测趋同但方向不同，且未改善预测质量或投资理性。
Abstract This paper is the first to use the WeChat platform, one of the largest social networks, to conduct an online experiment of artificial investment games. We investigate how people’s forecasts about the financial market and investment decisions are shaped by whether they can observe others’ forecasts and whether they engage in public or private investment decisions. We find that with forecast sharing, subjects’ forecasts converge but in different directions across groups; consequently, forecast sharing does not lead to better forecasts nor more individually rational investment decisions. Whether or not subjects engage in public investment decisions does not significantly affect forecasts or investment.