The Vagaries of the Sea: Evidence on the Real Effects of Money from Maritime Disasters in the Spanish Empire
利用西班牙帝国（1531-1810年）海上灾难导致白银货币大量损失的准自然实验，估计货币供给变化对实体经济的影响，发现负面冲击导致实际产出下降，价格调整缓慢和信用摩擦是主要传导机制。
Abstract We estimate the effect of money supply changes on the real economy by exploiting a recurring natural experiment: maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire (1531–1810) that resulted in the loss of substantial amounts of silver money. We find that negative money supply shocks caused Spanish real output to decline. A transmission channel analysis highlights slow price adjustments and credit frictions as mechanisms through which money supply changes affected the real economy. Especially large output declines occurred in textile manufacturing against the backdrop of a credit crunch that impaired merchants’ ability to supply their manufacturers with inputs.