Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective
研究发现，会计基本面偏离其前期移动平均值的程度可以预测股票价格漂移，这种预测性在多种市场异象中依然显著，且主要源于投资者对近期基本面均值的锚定效应。
Regression regularization techniques show that deviations of accounting fundamentals from their preceding moving averages forecast drifts in equity market prices. Deviations-based predictability survives a comprehensive set of prominent anomalies. The profitability applies strongly to the long leg and survives value weighting and excluding microcaps. We provide evidence that the predictability arises because investors anchor to recent means of fundamentals. A factor based on our fundamentals-based index yields economically significant intercepts after controlling for a comprehensive set of other factors, including those based on profit margins and earnings drift. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.