Does publication of interest rate paths provide guidance?
研究央行公布利率预测是否改善市场参与者对未来利率的预测能力，基于挪威和瑞典的高频数据发现，公布利率路径并未提升市场对信息的反应，仅当前政策行动有改善效果。
Does the central bank practice of publishing interest rate projections (IRPs) improve how market participants map new information into future interest rates? Using high-frequency data on forward rate agreements (FRAs) we compute market forecast errors; differences between expected future interest rates and ex-post realizations. We assess their change in narrow windows around monetary policy announcements and macroeconomic releases in Norway and Sweden. Overall, communication of future policy plans does not improve markets’ response to information, irrespective of whether or not IRPs are in place. A decomposition of market reactions into responses to the current monetary policy action (“target”) and responses to signals about the future (“path”), reveals that only policy actions lead to improvements in market forecasts.