INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING MARKETS
发现新兴经济体的实际汇率顺周期性更强，伴随消费波动更大和贸易平衡更反周期；通过模型估计，发现利率冲击（无摩擦）解释了大部分产出波动，这源于国内外商品的不完全替代。
Abstract I document cyclical behavior of real exchange rates (RERs) in emerging and developed economies: stronger RER procyclicality coincides with larger relative volatility of consumption and more countercyclical trade balance. I then reevaluate the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies using an international business cycle model estimated to match the behavior of the RERs. Interest rate shocks, without any frictions, account for most of output fluctuations. This result is driven by imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, which dampens the impact of trend shocks and accentuates the impact of interest rate shocks on output and consumption.