An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments
回顾了Bartik型份额移动工具变量的发展,并检验了不同构造版本的实证表现,发现剔除不可贸易部门就业的份额构造的工具变量更优,且高平均份额、低区域变动的行业更可能内生,还发现价格和工资等非就业的全国性变动也可用于构造有解释力的工具变量。
Abstract Bartik's (1991, 1993) approach to identifying shocks in demand to regional economies has been used extensively for nearly 30 years. We chronicle the development of Bartik‐type shift‐share instruments and examine the empirical performance of alternative versions that use different combinations of national shift and local share variables in their construction. We offer three main findings. First, instruments constructed from shares that omit employment in nontraded sectors empirically dominate versions that include total employment. Second, industrial sectors with high average shares and low variation across areas are more likely to be nontraded and endogenous. This suggests placing large weights on nontraded sector shares worsens both relevance and potential endogeneity. Finally, we demonstrate national shifters other than employment, such as prices and wages, can be used to construct instruments with unique and relevant explanatory power.