The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model
构建了一个包含社会规范的生育选择定量模型，利用社会经济数据和人口控制政策资金信息模拟政策效果，发现改变家庭规模规范的政策加速并强化了生育率下降。
Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.