Welfare with Imperfect Foreknowledge: The Case of Risk Aversion
研究了在休闲娱乐场景中，由于信息不完全导致事前预期与事后体验存在差异时，如何利用离散选择模型评估福利变化，并放松了风险中性的假设。
We study the use of discrete choice models in the context of recreation when there may be discrepancy between the anticipated (ex ante) and the experienced quality of site attributes due to imperfect information. Unlike previous literature on the topic, we relax the assumption of risk neutrality. Adopting a model with quasi-linear preferences, we characterize the disparity between ex ante and ex post utility by decomposing expected utility into a term stemming from bias in beliefs and a component representing willingness to pay for reducing uncertainty in site attributes. Our results show that ex post corrections of welfare losses are attenuated by greater dispersion in beliefs about amenities. <i></i>