Exploring Longitudinal Industry‐Level Large Truckload Driver Turnover
运用劳动经济学理论和方法，研究大型卡车运输公司行业层面司机离职率随时间的变化，重点关注行业就业和工资如何影响离职率，对运输公司、货主等行业相关方有重要启示。
Driver turnover remains a pervasive challenge for truckload (TL) motor carriers. For more than two decades, carriers in this segment have faced the deleterious effects brought on by a persistently high driver turnover rate, including increased costs, decreased productivity, and the erosion of safety performance. In light of these issues, logistics scholars have conducted numerous driver‐level and carrier‐level investigations to better understand the antecedents of TL driver turnover. Yet, since driver turnover is an industry‐wide issue, critical industry‐level questions remain unanswered. This paper seeks to complement prior work by adopting labor economic theory and methods to investigate how the industry‐level driver turnover rate evolves over time. In particular, we focus on how changing industry employment and wages impact the TL driver turnover rate across large carriers. We test our theory of industry‐level turnover using the American Trucking Association's proprietary turnover data for large TL carriers as well as governmental archives on industry and economic conditions obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Estimation results from time‐series regression modeling corroborate our theoretical arguments and hold important implications for TL motor carriers, shippers, and other industry stakeholders.