Credibility of Crime Allegations
针对性侵指控缺乏硬证据的问题，本文建立模型说明重复犯罪倾向使指控具有部分可信度，并解释为何指控常延迟且公众对延迟报告信任度较低。
The lack of hard evidence in allegations about sexual misconduct makes it difficult to separate true allegations from false ones. We provide a model in which victims and potential libelers face the same costs and benefits from making an allegation, but the tendency for perpetrators of sexual misconduct to engage in repeat offenses allows semiseparation to occur, which lends credibility to such allegations. Our model also explains why reports about sexual misconduct are often delayed, and why the public rationally assigns less credibility to these delayed reports.