Contagion in Derivatives Markets
研究了信用冲击如何通过衍生品市场的保证金支付网络引发连锁违约，利用美国信用违约互换市场约900家公司的数据，量化了传染规模、各公司贡献及违约数量，并评估了不同政策选项的效果。
A major credit shock can induce large intraday variation margin payments between counterparties in derivatives markets, which may force some participants to default on their payments. These payment shortfalls become amplified as they cascade through the network of exposures. Using detailed Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation data, we model the full network of exposures, shock-induced payments, initial margin collected, and liquidity buffers for about 900 firms operating in the U.S. credit default swaps market. We estimate the total amount of contagion, the marginal contribution of each firm to contagion, and the number of defaulting firms for a systemic shock to credit spreads. A novel feature of the model is that it allows for a range of behavioral responses to balance sheet stress, including delayed or partial payments. The model provides a framework for analyzing the relative effectiveness of different policy options, such as increasing margin requirements or mandating greater liquidity reserves. This paper was accepted by Karl Diether, finance.