Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP
分析了专业预测者对GDP冲击持续性的看法，发现表面上的异质性主要源于短样本和活跃时间不同，控制后长期预测可互换，但中期预测不可互换。
Summary We analyse individual professional forecasters' beliefs concerning the persistence of GDP shocks. Despite substantial apparent heterogeneity in perceptions, with around one half of the sample of professional forecasters believing shocks do not have permanent effects, we show that these apparent differences may be largely due to short samples and survey respondents being active at different times. When we control for these effects, using a bootstrap, we formally do not reject the null that individuals' long‐horizon expectations are interchangeable at a given point in time. When we apply the same bootstrap approach to their medium‐term expectations, we do reject the null. We explore this difference between long and medium‐horizon forecasts by decomposing revisions in forecasts into permanent and transitory components.