International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany
用全球CGE模型分析德国能效提升如何通过贸易产生国际溢出效应，发现全球反弹效应小于国内反弹效应，对研究碳泄漏和气候政策有参考价值。
The pollution/energy leakage literature raises the concern that policies implemented in one country, such as a carbon tax or tight energy restrictions, might simply result in the reallocation of energy use to other countries. Our research addresses these concerns in the context of policies to increase energy efficiency, rather than direct action to reduce energy use. Using a global CGE simulation model, we extend the analyses of ‘economy-wide’ rebound from the national focus of previous studies to incorporate international spill-over effects from trade in goods and services. Our focus is to investigate whether these effects have the potential to increase or reduce the overall (global) rebound of local energy efficiency improvements. In the case we consider, increased energy efficiency in German production generates changes in comparative advantage that produce negative leakage effects, thereby actually rendering global rebound less than national rebound. The presentation at the ENTRACTE workshop will focus in particular on downward pressures on economy-wide rebound effects that result more generally from changes in competitiveness as well as the capacity and pricing decisions of energy suppliers.