Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women
利用匈牙利提高义务教育离校年龄的政策，发现该政策使罗姆女性青少年生育概率降低13.4%-26.0%，且主要通过在校期间的禁闭效应而非人力资本效应实现。
Abstract This paper examines the effects of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on the teenage fertility of Roma women, a disadvantaged ethnic minority in Hungary. We use a regression discontinuity design identification strategy and show that the reform decreased the probability of teenage motherhood among Roma women by 13.4–26.0% and delayed motherhood by 2 years. We separate the incapacitation and human capital effects of education on fertility by exploiting a database that covers live births, miscarriages, abortions, and still births and contains information on the time of conception. We find that longer schooling decreases the probability of getting pregnant during the school year but not during summer and Christmas breaks, which suggests that the estimated effects are generated mostly through the incapacitation channel.