The Great Indian Demonetization
研究了2016年印度废止86%流通纸币的政策效果,发现三年后其宣称目标(打击黑钱、假币、推动经济正规化)成效有限,但造成了暂时的就业和产出损失。
On November 8, 2016, India demonetized 86 percent of its currency in circulation. The stated objectives of the move were to seize undeclared income, to destroy counterfeit currency, to speed up formalization of the economy, and to increase the tax base. I find that the evidence over the subsequent three years suggests that the move had limited success in achieving its stated objectives. Disaggregated data suggests that demonetization did have appreciable costs in terms of lost jobs and output. However, the output costs appear to have been temporary.