财富创造、财富稀释与人口学

Wealth creation, wealth dilution and demography

Journal of Monetary Economics · 2020
被引 12
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

构建了一个生育率与创新驱动生产率增长内生互动的模型,发现财富稀释和工资动态通过非马尔萨斯力量稳定人口,而减少人口的冲击(如移民壁垒)会永久降低劳动份额和企业数量,导致长期停滞和代际再分配。

Abstract

Demographic forces are crucial drivers of macroeconomic performance. Yet, existing theories do not allow demography to respond to fundamentals and policies while determining key macroeconomic variables. We build a model of endogenous interactions between fertility and innovation-led productivity growth that delivers empirically consistent co-movements of population, income and wealth. Wealth dilution and wage dynamics stabilize population through non-Malthusian forces; demography determines the ratios of labor income and consumption to financial wealth. Shocks that reduce population size, like immigration barriers, reduce permanently the labor share and the mass of firms, creating prolonged stagnation and substantial intergenerational redistribution of income and welfare.

财富稀释人口内生性生育率与创新代际再分配