The Race to the Base
研究了两个追求席位的政党在多选区立法选举中的竞争策略,发现当一方初始优势较小时双方都争取中间选民,优势中等时劣势方转向争取核心支持者,优势很大时优势方会进攻对方温和派以追求超大优势。
We study multi-district legislative elections between two office-seeking parties when one party has an initial valence advantage that may shift and even reverse during the campaign; and, each party cares not only about winning a majority, but also about its share of seats. When the initial imbalance favoring one party is small, each party targets the median voter. For moderate imbalances, the advantaged party maintains the centre-ground, but the disadvantaged party retreats to target its core supporters; and for large imbalances, the advantaged party advances toward its opponent, raiding its moderate supporters in pursuit of an outsized majority.