Progressive Taxation and Economic Stability*
构建包含全要素生产率冲击的生命周期模型，发现累进税制能降低产出波动5%，主要通过减少年轻人和即将退休者的收入波动实现，并评估了降低累进程度的福利影响。
Abstract Recent empirical evidence finds that progressive taxation is an effective economic stabilizer, but theoretical results disagree. This paper shows that a lifecycle model with total factor productivity shocks can match the empirical evidence. If the US economy switched from progressive to proportional taxation, output volatility would increase by 5 percent. Progressive taxes act as stabilizers by reducing income volatility among the young and soon‐to‐be retirees. Thus, incorporating a rich lifecycle structure in the model is important to match the data. The model is then used to study the welfare implications of reducing tax progressivity.