Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence
利用巴西养老金改革使农村工人养老金财富增长三倍，研究发现养老金慷慨度使育龄女性生育倾向短期下降8%，20年内完成生育减少1.3个孩子，对高胎次、年长及有儿子的母亲影响最大。
This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons.