Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia
利用印度尼西亚数据，发现农业季节降雨不足会降低农业产量并增加民事冲突，而灌溉基础设施能显著减弱这种影响，且该效应仅针对灌溉设施，水电大坝则无类似作用。
This article provides evidence that rainfall shocks affect conflict through their effect on agricultural production and that irrigation infrastructure can mitigate this effect. Using data from Indonesia, we document that low rainfall during the agricultural season decreases agricultural production and increases civil conflict. We then show that the rainfall‐conflict link is attenuated by the presence of irrigation infrastructure in a district. This attenuating effect is specific to irrigation infrastructure; we find no evidence for a similar effect of hydropower dams. Our results are stronger for small‐scale conflicts over natural resources and popular justice than for conflicts over ethnic identity or ethnic separatism. These results are robust to controlling for interactions between rainfall and a wide range of socio‐economic and geographic district characteristics. We conclude that adaptive policies that mitigate the negative effects of weather shocks on agriculture may also prevent conflict.