Steering the Climate System: Using Inertia to Lower the Cost of Policy: Comment
评论了Lemoine和Rudik(2017)的观点,指出气候系统对二氧化碳排放的响应并无显著滞后,因此不能依赖气候惯性推迟减排,最优政策要求碳价从高起步并按利率增长。
Lemoine and Rudik (2017) argues that it is efficient to delay reducing carbon emissions, due to supposed inertia in the climate system’s response to emissions. This conclusion rests upon misunderstanding the relevant earth system modeling: there is no substantial lag between CO 2 emissions and warming. Applying a representation of the earth system that captures the range of responses seen in complex earth system models invalidates the original article’s implications for climate policy. The least-cost policy path that limits warming to 2°C implies that the carbon price starts high and increases at the interest rate. It cannot rely on climate inertia to delay reducing and allow greater cumulative emissions.