The Demand for Trade Protection over the Business Cycle
基于美国数据，构建贸易保护需求指标，发现其随生产率冲击呈逆周期、随货币冲击呈顺周期，并用两国DSGE模型解释这一现象。
Abstract We build measures of the demand for trade protection, and relate them to permanent productivity and transitory monetary shocks identified from U.S. data. The demand for trade protection is countercyclical conditional on productivity shocks and procyclical conditional on monetary shocks. A two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with trade in intermediate and final goods, sticky prices, and incomplete financial markets is proposed, in which tariffs are determined in a repeated noncooperative policy game. The resulting trade policies are consistent with the empirical evidence about the cyclical pattern of trade protection demand.