Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
评估了多种全球经济指标在预测石油价格和消费中的效果，构建了一个新的全球经济状况指数，用于量化2020年初全球经济收缩和页岩油生产商面临的价格风险。
Abstract We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.