Nominal exchange rate determination and dynamics in an OLG framework
用一个代际交叠模型解释名义汇率长期由基本面决定、短期却波动的矛盾现象，发现当稳态局部不确定时，自我实现的信念会导致汇率围绕长期值随机波动。
Abstract The empirical evidence on nominal exchange rate dynamics shows a long-run relationship of this variable with the fundamentals of the economy, although such relationship disappears at shorter horizons. This apparently contrasting behaviour of the nominal exchange rate can be explained in an overlapping generations model where the currencies are not perfect substitutes. In this framework, we show that the nominal exchange rate is pinned down by the fundamentals at the monetary steady state. We study the local dynamics and show that when the monetary steady state is locally indeterminate, then fluctuations of the nominal exchange rate around its long-run value can emerge. In particular, we prove the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria, where random fluctuations of the nominal exchange rate arise as a result of self-fulfilling beliefs.