Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop-Prone Economies
用一个简洁模型解释新兴国家货币政策的周期性，发现相机抉择政策为缓解汇率贬值带来的资产负债表效应而呈顺周期性，而承诺通胀目标制能提高社会福利并减少金融危机频率，但会加剧危机严重程度。
This paper proposes a parsimonious theory explaining the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging countries in a model where access to foreign financing depends on the real exchange rate and the government lacks commitment. The discretionary monetary policy is procyclical to mitigate balance sheet effects originating from exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. Committing to an inflation targeting regime is found to increase social welfare and reduce the frequency of financial crises despite increasing their severity. Finally, the ability to use capital controls induces a less procyclical discretionary monetary policy and delivers higher welfare gains than an inflation targeting regime.