Information Aggregation with Random Ordering: Cascades and Overconfidence
实验研究个体如何结合私有信息和他人决策进行信息聚合，发现随机排序中信息级联可观察，过度自信有助于避免无信息聚合但降低总体福利。
In economic models, it is usually assumed that agents aggregate their private information with all available public information correctly and completely. In this experiment, we identify subjects’ updating procedures and analyse the consequences for the aggregation process. Decisions can be based on private information with known quality and on the observed decisions of other participants. In this setting with random ordering, information cascades are observable and agents’ overconfidence has a positive effect on avoiding a non‐revealing aggregation process. However, overconfidence reduces welfare in general.