A Model of Stochastic Process Switching
建立了一个模型，分析政策当局（如央行）在设定政策规则时，当内生变量超出界限后切换至新规则的行为，并探讨这种切换概率如何通过理性预期影响当前价格决定。
Often, a policy authority such as a central bank operates by establishing a policy rule to set the variables under its control. Such a rule is allowed to operate freely as long as certain endogenous variables of interest to the authority remain within particular bounds; however, then those endogenous variables cross their bounds, the authority switches toa new policy rule which it had prepared to meet this contingency. Since variable such as prices are determined partly by agents' beliefs about future events, agents' behavior injects the probabilities that policy switches will occur at particular future times into current price determination.