An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
构建了一个选择理论的一般均衡搜索模型，分析马拉维的HIV/AIDS流行病，研究抗逆转录病毒治疗、包皮环切、改进避孕套和治疗其他性传播疾病等政策干预的效果，发现政策效果取决于行为变化和均衡效应。
Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.