Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015
研究跨越两个世纪的全球资本流动和大宗商品价格周期，发现它们与主权违约在时间上高度重叠，对当前新兴市场面临的双重冲击有启示。
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.