Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation
在一个简单的新凯恩斯模型中引入政策制定者行为的模糊性，导致长期通胀预期、趋势通胀与通胀目标之间出现偏差。利用蓝筹调查数据测量的模糊程度有助于解释美国数据中长期通胀预期和通胀趋势的动态变化，并发现政策制定者最优策略是抑制家庭的悲观预期，但模糊性的不利影响难以完全消除。
ABSTRACT Allowing for ambiguity about the behavior of the policymaker in a simple New-Keynesian model gives rise to wedges between long-run inflation expectations, trend inflation, and the inflation target. The degree of ambiguity we measure in Blue Chip survey data helps explain the dynamics of long-run inflation expectations and the inflation trend measured in the US data. Ambiguity also has implications for monetary policy. We show that it is optimal for policymakers to lean against the households’ pessimistic expectations, but also document the limits to the extent the adverse effects of ambiguity can be undone.