Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations
实证研究1970-1995年美国劳动合同期限与不确定性的关系，发现名义或实际不确定性高时合同期限缩短，支持合同期限内生响应总体不确定性，但风险分担并非主因。
This paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between uncertainty and ex ante U.S. labor contract durations over the period 1970 to 1995. Using a structural identification of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks, we find that desired contract durations are shorter during periods of heightened nominal or real uncertainty. This evidence supports the view that labor contract durations respond endogenously to the aggregate uncertainty prevailing at the time they are negotiated, but suggests that risk-sharing concerns are not paramount. The analysis also considers several measures of inflation uncertainty that have appeared in the literature. The results generally corroborate previous findings of an inverse relationship between desired contract durations and the level of inflation uncertainty. 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.