Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States
研究情绪是否影响总需求，利用政治结果作为工具变量，发现情绪对未来州级经济活动有正向影响。
Abstract We examine whether sentiment influences aggregate demand by studying the relationship between the Michigan Survey expectations concerning national output growth and future economic activity at the state level. We instrument for local sentiments with political outcomes, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and our results confirm a positive relationship between sentiments and future state economic activity that is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests.