Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952–1991
利用1952至1991年美国社会保障福利增加的数据，发现永久性福利增加会立即显著提升消费，但效果约五个月后减弱，且未扩散至工业生产或就业；转移支付的影响比税收变化更快但更小且更短暂，货币政策对福利增加反应强烈，这可能解释了为何转移支付效果未能持续。
This paper uses Social Security benefit increases from 1952 to 1991 to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfers. It finds a large, immediate, and significant positive response of consumption to permanent benefit increases. The response declines after about five months, and does not appear to spread to industrial production or employment. The effects of transfers are faster, but much less persistent and much smaller overall, than those of tax changes. Finally, monetary policy responds strongly to benefit increases but not to tax changes. This may account for the failure of the effects of transfers to persist or spread.