The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles
利用17个发达经济体自1870年以来的银行信贷数据，发现抵押贷款占比翻倍，家庭债务与资产比率大幅上升，房地产贷款繁荣后往往伴随更严重的衰退和缓慢复苏。
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the twentieth century, driven by a sharp rise of mortgage lending to households. Household debt to asset ratios have risen substantially in many countries. Financial stability risks have been increasingly linked to real estate lending booms, which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in the modern macroeconomy.