Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves
提出一个基于金融稳定和金融开放度的模型，解释新兴市场国家为何积累大量国际储备，发现国内金融负债规模、金融开放度、通过债务市场获取外币的能力以及汇率政策是储备存量的重要预测因素。
The rapid growth of international reserves, a development concentrated in the emerging markets, remains a puzzle. In this paper, we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange rate policy are all significant predictors of reserve stocks. Our empirical financial-stability model seems to outperform both traditional models and recent explanations based on external short-term debt.