On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
采用时变协整检验重新评估欧元区长期货币需求方程的稳定性，提出包含投机和预防动机的稳定方程，发现过剩流动性更适用于预测股市崩盘而非通胀，对欧洲央行货币政策有重要启示。
Abstract We employ a recent time‐varying cointegration test to revisit the usefulness of long‐run money demand equations for the ECB, addressing the issue of their instability by means of a model evaluation exercise. Building on the results, we make a twofold contribution. First, we propose a novel stable money demand equation relying on two crucial factors: a speculative motive, represented by domestic and foreign price‐earnings ratios, and a precautionary motive, measured by changes in unemployment. Second, we use the model to derive relevant policy implications for the ECB, since excess liquidity looks more useful for forecasting stock market busts than future inflation. Overall, this evidence points to (i) a possible evolution of the monetary pillar in the direction of pursuing financial stability and (ii) the exclusion of a sudden liquidity–driven inflationary burst after the exit from the prolonged period of unconventional monetary measures.