Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Tax Multipliers
分析了美国与英国的叙事性税收冲击指标是否可作为内生税收变量的有效工具变量，发现两者弱相关，且使用弱工具稳健推断后税收乘数估计常不显著，表明现有文献低估了不确定性。
Abstract We analyze whether popular measures of narrative tax shocks can be treated as relevant instruments for observable endogenous tax series of interest. We find that narrative tax measures are only weakly correlated with cyclically adjusted tax revenues for the US and the UK. Using weak‐instrument robust inference, narrative tax measures often yield insignificant estimates of tax multipliers. We conclude that the literature currently understates the uncertainty associated with estimating the tax multiplier using the narrative approach.