Why Isn’t Business Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates? Evidence from Surveys
基于CFO调查数据，发现多数企业投资对利率下降极不敏感，对上升反应也有限，主因是企业持有充足现金，这符合企业为应对外部融资变化而积累现金缓冲的动态模型。
Using recent chief financial officer surveys, we examine the sensitivity of investment plans to interest rate expectations and find that, for most firms, investment is extremely insensitive to interest rate decreases and only modestly more responsive to increases. Firms cite ample cash holdings as the most frequent reason to explain their lack of sensitivity. This result is consistent with dynamic models of corporate behavior in which firms build cash buffers in anticipation of potential changes in external financing conditions. In the cross section, we find that the investment plans tend to be the least sensitive to interest rate changes at firms that do not expect to borrow over the coming year and firms facing less-binding financing constraints. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.