The Capital Inflows Problem Revisited: A Stylized Model of Southern Cone Disinflation
构建了一个程式化跨期框架，研究拉丁美洲南锥体国家在1970年代末通过逐步降低汇率贬值率来抑制通胀的计划，解释了即使市场完全出清，资本流入和实际汇率升值仍可能发生。
In the late 1970s, countries in Latin America's Southern Cone initiated attempts to lower domestic inflation rates through the progressive reduction of a preannounced rate of exchange-rate devaluation. The stabilization programs gave rise to massive capital inflows, real exchange-rate appreciation, and current-account deficits. This paper develops a stylized intertemporal framework in which the effects of a credible preannounced disinflation scheme can be studied. It is shown that even when agents have perfect foresight and markets clear continuously, the "capital inflows" phenomenon and the associated real appreciation may result. While unanticipated, permanent inflation changes are neutral in the paper, anticipated inflation is neutral only in exceptional circumstances. A preannounced disinflation operates by altering the path of an expenditure-based real domestic interest rate that depends on expected changes in the prices of liquidity services and nontradable consumption goods.