Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*
估计了美国战后（沃尔克上任前后）的前瞻性货币政策反应函数，发现沃尔克-格林斯潘时期利率对预期通胀更敏感，且该规则具有稳定经济的作用。
We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much more sensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volcker period. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rules for the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simple macroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.