A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity
利用20个国家100多年的年度数据，用更强大的检验方法支持长期购买力平价，并发现浮动汇率制下偏差更大源于冲击大小而非持续性，且国际一体化平滑冲击的能力变化不大。
This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century. I collected data for a group of twenty countries over 100 years, a larger historical panel of annual data than has ever been studied. The evidence for long-run PPP is favorable using recent multivariate and univariate tests of higher power. Residual variance analysis shows that episodes of floating exchange rates have generally been associated with larger deviations from PPP, as expected; this result is not attributable to significantly greater persistence (longer half-lives) of deviations in such regimes, but is due to the larger shocks to the real exchange rate process in such episodes. In the course of the twentieth century, there was relatively little change in the capacity of international market integration to smooth out real exchange rate shocks. Instead, changes in the size of shocks depended on the political economy of monetary and exchange rate regime choice under the constraints imposed by the trilemma. © 2002 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology