Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data
利用调整后的全要素生产率数据，实证检验新凯恩斯模型关于零利率下限时期供给冲击效应的预测，发现正向生产率冲击在零利率下限时期更具扩张性，与模型预测相反。
Abstract The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the ZLB compared to normal times.