Welfare‐maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty
在一个估计的美国经济微观基础一般均衡模型中，研究政策制定者面临模型参数不确定性时的福利最大化货币政策，发现最优泰勒规则对产出缺口反应更弱、对通胀反应更强。
Abstract This paper examines welfare‐maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro‐founded general equilibrium model of the US economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies uncertainty about the model's dynamics, utility‐based welfare criterion and the ‘natural’ rates of output and interest that would prevail absent nominal rigidities. We estimate the degree of uncertainty regarding natural rates due to parameter uncertainty. We find that optimal Taylor rules under parameter uncertainty respond less to the output gap and more to price inflation than would be optimal absent parameter uncertainty. We also show that policy rules that focus solely on stabilizing wages and prices yield welfare outcomes very close to the first‐best. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.