Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity
利用1978-2006年工业化国家银行国际业务数据，研究发现银行一体化对产出同步性有显著的负向影响，与普遍认知相反。
ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of financial globalization on business cycle synchronization using a proprietary database on banks’ international exposure for industrialized countries during 1978 to 2006. Theory makes ambiguous predictions and identification has been elusive due to lack of bilateral time‐varying financial linkages data. In contrast to conventional wisdom and previous empirical studies, we identify a strong negative effect of banking integration on output synchronization, conditional on global shocks and country‐pair heterogeneity. Similarly, we show divergent economic activity due to higher integration using an exogenous de‐jure measure of integration based on financial regulations that harmonized EU markets.