EXPECTATIONS AND CONTAGION IN SELF‐FULFILLING CURRENCY ATTACKS*
基于Morris和Shin的不完全信息框架，构建了一个更丰富的模型，说明自我实现的信念如何导致货币危机跨国传染，且模型限制与实证证据一致。
Self‐fulfilling expectations are commonly believed to play an important role in the transmission of currency crises across countries. Formal models of contagion based on multiple equilibria, however, have been criticized for failing to explain basic patterns observed in the data; these criticisms have been taken as evidence against the self‐fulfilling view. This article argues that the importance of self‐fulfilling beliefs is not so easily dismissed. A slightly richer model, based on the incomplete‐information framework of Morris and Shin ( American Economic Review 88 (1998), 587–97) , can generate contagion due to self‐fulfilling beliefs while placing restrictions on observable variables that are broadly consistent with the empirical evidence.